2010: Three Simple Predictions

30 12 2009

As with every new year, there are a number of predictions on what will be in stored for us all during the year, as a way of expressing the optimism (or pessimism) a new beginning always triggers. Reading quite a few 2010 predictions blog posts (especially around social media and online vs offline) I did find a lot which pose good, well-rounded points but there are also quite a few that tend to exaggerate, either to spark a good conversation around them or in an attempt to step out of the crowd or, or, or.

Now, I am not going to give you these out-of-this-world 2010 predictions, by trying to give you the insider’s view of what the world will be like in the future, however I will leave you with just 3 very basic points for 2010 by using logic and past precedent:

  • Social media and the online world is and will continue to grow in use and popularity. No surprise there really as there’s too many studies and researches out there which showcase the sharp and ongoing growth of internet penetration, social media use and participation over the past few years, which is not going to end with the close of 2009.
  • The offline world (meatspace for some) will continue to exist and be of importance. We all participate in both the online and offline world so it is highly unlikely for one of the two to disappear within 1 year. Plus, we need both ‘worlds’ to keep a balance in our lives (I am of course speaking about people for whom online is now an integral part of their everyday life which consists of the majority of the developed world population). For those who talk about an online vs offline battle;  it’s not really a competition whereas one of the two worlds will win and where the defeated world will need to cease to exist.
  • Traditional media will not disappear. Yes online reliance on finding news is increasing immensely with traditional news sources dropping in readership, ratings etc, however, a lot of people still like to read the newspaper in paper on their way to work, they still want to watch the news on TV or on the radio and this emotional bond which is part of a sacred routine for some will not disappear within the timespan of 1 year. Let’s not forget also that a lot of the traditional media (especially paper media) are now evolving to keep up with today’s digital times (of course there are ones that are strongly trying to resist the online impact to how people find news, see Rupert Murdoch).

At the end of the day, we can make all the predictions we want and a lot can happen in a year, but no one can know for sure what will be in stored for the world in 2010. After all, in 2007 there weren’t any predictions for a worldwide financial crisis or the Lehman Brothers closing in the next year, but there you go.

Since we can’t know for sure what will happen in the future then there’s no point stressing about it either now is there? Rounded numbers always feel better so let’s hope that 2010 will be a good year.


Comments : Leave a Comment »
Tags: , , ,
Categories : Internet, Social Media

Internet and Technology Evolution. What’s Next?

20 10 2009

I was reading the a very interesting article by The Guardian the other day, “From the first email to the first YouTube video: a definitive internet history“, which gives a nice round up of all the milestone internet firsts. Specifically it talks about the first email, virus, online community, smiley, multiplayer game, search engine, browser, webcam, blog, cybercafe, eBay sale, Wikipedia entry, social networking site, major dotcom failure and YouTube video.

A 1977 Computer TRS-80 (Source:www.trs-80.com)

A 1977 TRS-80 Microcomputer (Source: www.trs-80.com)

Reading about how they all awkwardly started and where they are now, made me realize how far along we came since then, which is mind boggling when you think of how huge of a leap we’ve taken in just a few years. What’s even more mind boggling is thinking where we could be a few short years… I can already see the next generation, where kids are taught Interned History in school as a worldwide subject, where teachers will need to explain to their students what a ‘computer device’ was, what it was like to flip through a book, turning pages instead of scrolling down pages and having to ‘connect’ to the internet instead of being automatically online 24/7 (Minority Report, anybody?). You might argue that this sounds too futuristic and too far away, but don’t be so sure. I remember a dear MIS professor during my St. John’s University years who was already talking with arguments about the near future where our kids/ grandkids will be laughing at us when we tell them that we actually had to go out to buy a computer because by that time computer-like capabilities will be accessible through hypodermic microchips installed on each person.

Furthermore, take into consideration that it takes about 30 years for confidential military technology to trickle down to commercial use availability as it is being said and that they are already working on quantum computing in universities (as I have been told 3 years ago by a friend of mine who’s a PhD student). This makes you wonder how advanced military technology must be by now.

If you’re still not convinced, here’s some food for thought, a TED talk video on (mind blowing) sixth sense technology that’s already available for buying

and the Nokia Morph Phone Concept which explores telecom uses of nanotechnology, expected to be commercially released by 2012.


Comments : Leave a Comment »

Categories : Internet, Social Media, Technology